4/28/2009 3:39 PM
The market traded according to our assessment. It did rally into our recommended sell zone, 125-19/23. The day session high was 125-23. The rest of the day was a sale, a trend day, with 3 distributions lower by day’s end. The close was weak. The market is pointed lower and we could say this with more confidence, if it weren’t for the 7 Y auction. The auctions complicates the trading. Normal news events, relationships between markets don’t always apply. While the market si pointed lower, if the Dealer community decides to cover their shorts to support the market, the market will trade higher for the short term. Want to sell early strength and see if today’s lows or the OVN session low can be taken out. If not, will begin to look to the long side of the market.
F1 Comments: The market traded lower today and close weak. It is pointed lower tomorrow. And it needs to trade lower to hold today’s shorts in their positions.
F2 Comments: The market traded higher off the day session opening from the weakness in the ES. The Bond rallied to 125-23, into our recommended sell zone at 125-19/23, and then reversed to sell for the rest of the day. The market closed weak. The market activity analysis favors selling early strength. If 123-00 or the OVN low isn’t taken out, will cover and about getting long. The 7Y auction could bring in buying as the Dealers support this auction. Tomorrow’s new: Adv GDP is expected at -49%; Deflator at 1.7%: API inventories; FOMC announcement. First sell band is 124-03/07. Back up sell is 124-11/15. Cover, if 123-16 of the OVN low holds.
F4 Comments: The analysis was to sell 125-19/23. Day session high was 125-23. The software generated valid sell signals throughout the session.
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